Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, claims that each SpaceX Starship launch could generate up to $1 billion in revenue. This estimate makes the company's IPO valued at $1.75 trillion more attractive, considering Elon Musk's goal of conducting 10,000 flights per year by 2030. If SpaceX achieves this goal, Wood believes the IPO will retrospectively be seen as a 'deeply undervalued opportunity.'
The calculation starts with Starlink. According to ARK's analyst, revenue from Starlink connections is about $19 million per year per terabit per second (Tbps) of network capacity. One Starship carries approximately 61 Tbps, so full capacity adds nearly $1 billion in regular Starlink revenue, rather than a one-time payment fee. Multiplying by 10,000 launches per year gives $10 trillion just from Starship. However, this step assumes that each flight transports Starlink capacity. Musk set the goal of 10,000 flights in the context of commercial aviation—a transport business that does not generate revenue from connections. Early investors have received little so far: SPCX was priced at $135 in June and closed its first session at $161, after which it traded below the IPO price for weeks.
Revenue per Tbps is already declining: according to ARK—$21 million in 2023, $23 million in 2024, and $19 million in 2025. The analyst explains this as an expected effect of capacity growth. The main gap is in launch frequency: Falcon 9 flew 165 times last year, while Starship has only flown twice since its listing in June. Both flights remained suborbital, so the V3 satellites released in July re-entered the atmosphere and burned up in about 20 minutes. The next mission is aimed at low Earth orbit for the first time and carries 26 operational V3 blocks—this flight is also expected to be the first commercial launch of Starship.
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