Coinbase warns that Bitcoin could fall below $80K due to macroeconomic risks and weak demand. Senior quantitative strategist at Coinbase, Colin Basco, noted that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December is 80%. Bitcoin might protect the 80K–82K zone, which is the intersection of the 50-day moving average and the ETF value. However, Basco also said: "If this area does not hold, then we are looking at $73–75K as the next support zone."
According to a Coinbase report, demand for Bitcoin from treasury firms declined in the second half of 2026, leaving spot ETFs as the main players in the market. However, on October 23, there was a significant decrease - $635 million outflow in one day, which became one of the largest outflows in the second half of 2026. This occurred amid concerns of renewed escalation between the US and Iran. According to Coinbase, the liquidity of the crypto market decreased by almost $13 billion from peak values in May, and the Coinbase premium remained negative in October. In other words, crypto-native liquidity is lacking, and US retail investors outside of ETFs have not yet returned in large volumes, indicating a lack of buying pressure.
Additionally, Coinbase noted a large supply cluster of more than 2.1 million BTC in the 87.5K–91.7K zone: this block could become an obstacle for any reversal attempts. In the options market, institutional players are actively hedging risks, as evidenced by the increase in the 25-Delta Skew from 5% to 15% for 1-day and 1-week terms. This indicates increased demand for downside protection, with key levels of interest being $75K and $73K. Meanwhile, over the past three months, the 25-Delta Skew has only increased from 6% to 10%, indicating long-term calm: institutions perceive macroeconomic and geopolitical fears as short-term rather than prolonged negative impacts.
This material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.