On-chain analysts from CryptoQuant believe that Bitcoin is facing a significant decline risk. The cryptocurrency has approached the $80,000 level, driven by increased optimism among retail investors. However, according to the platform, major market participants are not showing comparable interest, and the market is exhibiting signs of overheating.
CryptoQuant notes that the rally lacks a solid foundation in the form of spot capital. Retail activity remains high, while demand from large holders is weaker. Experts also point to a weakening price momentum.
In this situation, they believe that the likelihood of a price drop scenario, which would trigger forced liquidations of traders' long positions and exacerbate the decline, is high. At the same time, analysts do not see a sharp influx of large Bitcoin deposits to centralized exchanges. According to them, the current rebound has not been accompanied by a significant increase in such transfers, so it is premature to conclude that there is serious pressure from large sellers.
The combination of active retail purchases and more restrained demand from companies and funds makes Bitcoin's position unstable. CryptoQuant believes that it is premature to expect a return to a sustainable upward trend in the near future.
Previously, analysts from the market maker Wintermute suggested that Bitcoin could trade within the range of $75,000–82,000 during September. In their view, further price movement will depend on the economic situation and decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve.