CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's Recovery Outpaces USDT Supply Growth

In a new analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV_, it is stated that Bitcoin's recovery is outpacing the dynamics of USDT supply: over five days, Tether's capitalization decreased by nearly $1 billion. Fewer fresh dollars are entering the market, and the recovery relies more heavily on those buyers who are already in it.

The analysis claims that Bitcoin's recovery "faces a liquidity problem": USDT cannot return to sustainable growth. During the rallies of 2024 and 2025, the stablecoin's capitalization increased by billions of dollars over 60-day periods, expanding the pool of dollars for trading and absorbing selling pressure. The issuance itself never guaranteed Bitcoin purchases but provided a stronger foundation for demand. This year, growth has been less sustainable and interrupted by deep contractions. The 60-day change in supply recently returned to zero from summer lows, but new withdrawals are testing this improvement.

At the time of writing, according to CoinGecko, Bitcoin was trading around $83,000, gaining over 1% in a day. It remains 34% below the all-time high above $126,000, and the 30-day dynamic is just over 1%—indicating that a stable recovery trend has not yet formed. Exiting the contraction is only the first step: if selling pressure weakens or capital returns, Bitcoin may recover, but the movement is harder to sustain without fresh liquidity, especially if high prices tempt holders to lock in profits.

The report does not call this a general outflow of capital from the market. Liquidity may flow into other stablecoins, and demand through ETFs may reach Bitcoin via a separate route. Nevertheless, the new reduction in USDT weakens the argument that the recovery is turning into a broad, liquidity-backed growth. To improve the picture, daily reductions must disappear, and the 60-day change must confidently rise above zero with strong spot purchases. "If the supply continues to shrink while BTC stagnates," writes the analyst, "the recovery may fade before demand becomes strong enough to absorb new selling pressure."