CryptoQuant's head Ki Young Ju stated that the current Bitcoin bull cycle is just beginning, but he expects less extreme growth compared to previous cycles – within 3–5x instead of a parabolic rally of 10x or more. According to him, in the past, 'hot money' and the dominance of retail investors contributed to explosive rallies, after which the price could drop by 80%. Now the situation has changed due to the growth of market capitalization and the increase in the share of institutional owners: these factors simultaneously limit growth potential and soften possible declines. After the current cycle, in his opinion, a milder bear market may begin.
Ju associates his position with a number of on-chain indicators. The PnL index, reflecting the aggregate profitability of Bitcoin holders, forms less pronounced extremes, and the minimum values of the indicator are above the levels of previous cycles. In the current cycle, MVRV has never fallen below 1 – this means that even at a local bottom, the price of Bitcoin remained above the average on-chain cost of asset owners. Individual investors could incur losses, but collectively, the owners were not 'underwater'. Additional signals the analyst named include the growth of realized capitalization, indicating an influx of new capital, the cessation of sales by 'old' Bitcoin whales, and the formation of large long positions by futures whales near the bottom. Another reference point was the 365-day moving average of the PnL index, which usually lags behind market turning points but now forms a significant turning point.
Ju emphasized that his forecast does not imply a specific upper limit for the Bitcoin price – it is about changing the risk-to-reward ratio. The abandonment of parabolic growth of 10x or more simultaneously means a lower likelihood of an 80% drop. This, in his opinion, may make Bitcoin more attractive for capital with a long-term horizon instead of speculative 'hot money'. He also suggested that the gradual maturation of Bitcoin could bring it closer to Satoshi Nakamoto's original vision – an asset stable enough to be used as money.
'The Bitcoin bull rally has just begun, but no one cares,' Ki Young Ju emphasized.
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