The National Bank of Denmark has revised the country's economic growth forecasts, nearly doubling them. The main reason is the explosive demand for weight loss and diabetes drugs from Novo Nordisk–the manufacturer of Ozempic and Wegovy, in the U.S. market. Weight loss drugs have transformed the economic landscape from several angles: they are reshaping healthcare, retail, and the leisure sector, with employers, including Bank of America, offering access to these medications as part of corporate health programs. In a report published this week, Danmarks Nationalbank noted that Denmark's pharmaceutical industry showed "extraordinary" growth in the first half of 2026, with an increasing share of production conducted abroad under Danish ownership. The growth is largely driven by Novo's sales and production in the American market earlier this year. This reflects Novo's agreement with the U.S. administration, which, among other things, has provided access to a broader group of patients through government health insurance programs since the beginning of the year.
The effect of this agreement has been so significant that the National Bank revised its forecasts for the country's overall economic development. In March, the central bank predicted growth of 1.8% in 2026 and 2027 and 2% in 2028. In the updated forecast presented this week, the figures are 4% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2% in 2028. Thus, the growth forecast for the current year was revised upwards by 2.2 percentage points. The bank explained that the upward revision mainly reflects two factors that have already occurred. First, growth in the first half of 2026 was higher than expected, due to both higher real growth in the pharmaceutical industry and overall growth in the rest of the Danish economy. Second, recalculated GDP figures provide a more reliable basis for the 2026 forecast. However, economic challenges include rising inflation expectations and uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict and high oil prices. Nonetheless, such massive demand for Novo products and production abroad means that the Danish economy does not receive the full spectrum of benefits from this success. National Bank Governor Christian Kettel Thomsen emphasized: "The Danish economy has so far withstood global shocks. We expect strong GDP growth this year, but without signs of increased pressure on wages or prices. This is because much of the growth is due to production abroad, which involves Danish labor and capital to a limited extent."
Remarkably, as a result of agreeing on access to millions of American consumers through the U.S. government program, Denmark's trade terms have worsened for the coming years. According to the report, real goods exports increased simultaneously with a decrease in prices for goods exported by Danish companies. Since the beginning of the year, this decrease has largely resulted from Novo's agreement with the U.S. administration, which included a price reduction of up to 30% on selected weight loss and diabetes drugs. For other goods exports, prices were relatively stable at the beginning of the year. Novo Nordisk is known for its obesity and diabetes drugs but also develops treatments for hemophilia and hormone replacement therapy. The White House announced last year that it received pricing terms from Novo under the "advanced most-favored-nation" principle, meaning lower prices for Medicare patients and TrumpRx program clients. A month later, the FDA approved Novo's oral form of Wegovy–the first drug of its class to receive regulatory approval.
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