Elon Musk announced that SpaceX and Tesla are forming special committees to explore the possibility of a merger. The market value of SpaceX exceeds $2 trillion, while Tesla is close to $1.5 trillion. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimates the likelihood of a merger at 80–90% – this is his assessment at the beginning of 2027.
The committees were created at the request of shareholders. Musk noted that he cannot participate in the negotiations due to a conflict of interest, calling the process a "strange kabuki theater." For the deal, Tesla will require approval from 50% of all shareholders, not just those voting, which Musk called a high bar. He also tried to temper expectations: the committees have not yet agreed on terms, and there are no guarantees of a deal.
SpaceX reported its first profitable quarter since its IPO, earning $4.4 billion. Revenue was about $14.6 billion, and the company ended the quarter with more than $51 billion in cash and $38.6 billion in marketable securities. The Super Intelligence division increased its revenue to $7.6 billion from $813 million a year earlier.
In the third quarter, Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles — above the forecast of 461,100 units. SpaceX and its subsidiary xAI purchased about $697 million in Megapack batteries and $131 million in Cybertrucks from Tesla over the past year. Tesla raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to $25 billion, directing a significant portion to robotics development.
Some observers consider the outcome predetermined: Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management estimates the probability of a deal at 90% within two years. Others are skeptical, pointing to the risks and uncertainties of the process. Tesla shares rose by just under 2% after the announcement, giving shareholders reason to discuss the topic at the upcoming report.
This material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.
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