ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet believes that AI's impact on the semiconductor industry will extend over 10–15 years: "We are only seeing the tip of the iceberg." The Dutch company ASML is the world's only manufacturer of EUV lithography machines, essential for producing the most advanced chips.
The growth in demand is driven by several factors: the improvement of optics, the transition to vertical chip layouts, and an extensive supplier network that cannot be quickly scaled. A key enhancement is the increased aperture of EUV mirrors: the larger it is, the more precise the focus of radiation on the wafer, allowing for finer circuit patterns. Simultaneously, ASML expects that more chip components will be built vertically. Multi-tier transistors and three-dimensional structures provide an additional way to increase density and performance as shrinking element sizes becomes increasingly challenging.
Replicating the technology is extremely difficult: a single EUV machine costs up to $400 million, consists of more than 100,000 parts, and is comparable in size to a double-decker bus. A laser hits droplets of molten tin, plasma emits EUV light, and a system of mirrors in a vacuum directs it onto wafers. ASML works with approximately 200 main suppliers and about 2,000 firms in the extended supply chain. Key partners include Zeiss (optics), Trumpf (lasers), and VDL (mechatronics). In 2013, the company acquired laser manufacturer Cymer. It is the supply chain that limits production rates.
Nikon and Canon, once major competitors, are now focused on DUV systems. EUV is needed for advanced processes, so ASML cannot sell them to China. This is pushing the country to create its own supply chain; Fouquet named Huawei as an important player in China's DUV equipment development. Additionally, ASML acquired an 11% stake in the French AI developer Mistral AI.
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