JPMorgan Predicts US Bonds Yield of 7–8% Over 12 Months

The US bond market could yield about 7–8% over the next 12 months, according to Bob Michele, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Global Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management. He stated this at an event in Singapore.

“The Treasury yield curve is close to 5%, and yields on the short end are slightly lower,” Michele said. “First, we expect some price appreciation. Then, on top of that, you add the interest income.” According to him, JPMorgan Asset manages approximately $4.6 trillion in assets.

US Treasury bonds have risen across the curve this month: the sell-off of AI-related stocks, political uncertainty in France, and tensions in the Middle East together made US government debt a choice for global investors. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds fell by more than 30 basis points in October and seems set to break a seven-month rise.

Michele sees the most value in the long end of the yield curve. According to him, the Fed will not raise rates this week but is likely to return in December with a hawkish message. “They will signal that they are still in a hiking cycle. The long end of the curve will like that: the market wants the Fed to be vigilant about growth and inflation pressures, and real yields there are just too high,” he said.

Last month, Michele mentioned that his team began buying long bonds from the US, Japan, and Australia, calling the prices “just too cheap” and stating that markets had reached a “point of maximum pain.”

The Bloomberg Treasury Index has declined by 0.9% since the beginning of 2026 after rising in each of the previous three years.