Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has published an essay describing the potential impact of the rapid development of artificial intelligence on the global labor market. In his view, large-scale changes in employment require advance preparation on the part of regulators and society as a whole. In the piece, Gates proposed the concept of a "Human Reserved" — a list of professions and fields of activity that it would be reasonable to keep exclusively for humans even after technical systems become capable of performing the corresponding work.
According to Gates' analysis, the current situation differs fundamentally from previous technological transformations. Artificial intelligence is capable of performing tasks that previously required exclusively human thinking, and the speed of its adoption across various industries significantly exceeds the pace of adaptation seen with past innovations. "The transition to the new AI era will be one of the most turbulent periods in human history," Gates wrote in his essay.
In his forecast, significant changes driven by the technology will occur across dozens of professions, particularly in law, customer service, medicine, programming, and manufacturing. Entry- and mid-level workers face the greatest risk, Gates believes, as new professions may require skills that take years of training to acquire. Special attention in the essay is paid to young professionals, who may face a reduction in the number of entry-level job openings in the labor market. At the same time, Gates noted that the combination of artificial intelligence and robotics will gradually affect physical labor as well. In his assessment, "smart" robots could begin competing with humans for certain physical tasks before the end of the current decade.
To mitigate the potential negative consequences of automation, Gates proposes defining a list of professions that society will consciously keep for humans. "I like the phrase Human Reserved because it reminds me of nature reserves — places where we could build buildings and roads but choose not to because the losses would be too great," he explained his concept. As a practical example, Gates cited the medical field. Technically, a robotic system could inform a patient of a terminal illness, but according to Gates, such decisions should remain within the competence of human doctors due to the ethical and psychological aspects of communication.
The list of professions included in the "Human Reserved" may vary depending on the demographic and economic characteristics of specific countries. For example, Japan, facing a shrinking working-age population, may, on the contrary, more actively deploy robotics for elderly care. In a comment to Axios, Gates also cited childcare and jury service as examples of activities that it would be reasonable to keep for humans.
In addition to the concept of limiting automation in certain sectors, Gates proposed the introduction of tax instruments on the use of AI and robotics. His analysis suggests that the current tax structure creates economic incentives for employers to replace workers with automated systems, since equipment purchase costs can be counted as business expenses, while hiring staff comes with mandatory payroll contributions. In Gates' view, such fiscal mechanisms could slow the pace at which workers are replaced by machines and provide financial resources for retraining and social adaptation programs. He also called for the creation of a national and international AI governance system that accounts for its comprehensive impact on employment, education, healthcare, energy, the financial system, and other critical sectors.
At the same time, Gates emphasized the significant positive potential of the technology. Artificial intelligence is capable of accelerating the development of drugs and vaccines, helping medical professionals diagnose diseases, boosting agricultural sector productivity, and making public and educational services more accessible to the broader population. "AI could be the greatest equalizing tool ever invented, or the worst source of injustice," Gates noted, highlighting the dual nature of the technology. In his view, the key challenge is to ensure that the benefits of the technology reach not only technologically advanced countries and large corporations, but as wide a range of people and organizations as possible.
In the context of the discussion around automation's impact on the labor market, it is worth noting the statement by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who previously expressed the view that the number of trade occupations — such as plumbers and electricians — needs to increase amid the technological transformation of the economy.