The US Treasury will conduct another long-term Treasury bond buyback operation on September 10. According to incrypted com, the market expects the buyback volume to exceed $4 billion — the amount the Treasury set under the previous operation increase from the originally planned $2 billion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that the new operation could be even larger in scale. Analysts offer varying forecasts: Morgan Stanley estimates the upper limit at around $10 billion, while Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall considers $5–6 billion a realistic figure.
The need for Treasury intervention in the debt market arose following significant pressure on Treasury bonds. On August 19, the yield on 30-year securities reached 5.337% — the highest level since 2007. After the announcement of the increased buyback volume, yields fell by approximately 10 basis points, but later began to rise again. At the time of the latest trading session, the yield on 30-year bonds stood at around 5.235%, while the yield on 10-year securities was approximately 4.704%. Bessent noted that the yield level itself is not a direct reason for the buyback — his goal is to ensure greater alignment between bond prices and fundamental economic indicators. He also described liquidity in 30-year bonds as "very low," stating that there is a "large toolkit" available to influence the situation.
The scale of the September 10 operation will have a significant impact on financial markets. According to Wrightson's calculations, a $6 billion buyback would reduce quarterly net issuance of bonds with maturities exceeding 20 years by approximately 27%, while a $10 billion buyback would reduce it by 55%. The US national debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, and Bessent stated that his administration plans to meet with the head of the Office of Management and Budget to discuss fiscal consolidation. Regular bond buybacks could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, by improving liquidity. Macro strategist Mark Connors suggests that if banking restrictions are potentially eased, Bitcoin could begin moving toward $180,000. The decline in Treasury yields also boosted gold's appeal — on August 19, its price rose to $4,525 per ounce, exceeding JPMorgan's forecast.