The Asia-Pacific (APAC) economy is showing a slowdown trend: growth rates will decline from 4.3% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. According to a report by Moody's Analytics, without the mass adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, this slowdown would have been more pronounced. Experts describe the current economic situation in the region as "two-speed": sustained demand for AI infrastructure supports exports and the manufacturing sector, while inflationary pressure and tight monetary policy constrain the development of other industries.
The primary beneficiaries of the technology cycle have been economies integrated into supply chains for semiconductors, memory modules, and related equipment. In the first half of 2026, South Korea's exports reached $496.7 billion, surpassing the same period of the previous year by 48.4%. Semiconductor shipments grew by 162.6% to $192.4 billion, exceeding the previous annual record within just six months. South Korea's exports of information and communications technology products reached $253.9 billion (+120.5%), with semiconductors and solid-state drives (SSDs) accounting for 83.7% of that volume. The country's Ministry of Trade attributes this dynamic to the expansion of global investment in AI servers.
Similar growth was recorded in Taiwan: exports for January–June increased by 47.1% to $416.6 billion. According to the statistics bureau, the region's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 14.15% in the first half of the year, prompting authorities to raise the economic growth forecast for all of 2026 to 11.05%. According to calculations by Nikkei and Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, published in the Seoul Economic Daily, in the first half of the year South Korea's and Taiwan's export volumes simultaneously exceeded Japan's for the first time, with Japan's figure standing at approximately $384.4 billion.
Technology demand also supported Singapore's economy. In June, the country's electronic non-oil exports grew by 105.1% year-on-year, while integrated circuit shipments increased by 115.4%. Representatives of Enterprise Singapore attribute these figures to sustained global demand for artificial intelligence system products. However, as Moody's Analytics analysts note, strong export performance masks a less favorable situation with domestic demand. In many of the region's economies, consumption remains below pre-pandemic trends and global average levels. Additional pressure comes from high energy and food prices, which are accelerating inflation and reducing real household incomes.
Central banks across the region face a complex macroeconomic dilemma. High inflation formally requires monetary policy tightening, yet raising interest rates further cools an already weak consumption and investment activity. According to Moody's assessment, this is precisely why APAC regulators tightened conditions relatively moderately in 2026.
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This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.