Analysts at investment bank Morgan Stanley presented calculations according to which the planned constellation of SpaceX satellites for artificial intelligence tasks could gain a significant competitive advantage due to scale by 2031. According to forecasts, the cost of computing in orbit can decrease to 6.5 dollars per watt per year. By comparison, the total cost of operating ground-based NVIDIA Blackwell GPU-based data centers currently stands at about $6.8 per watt per year. Recently, the company demonstrated the first specialized satellite, designated AI1, which is capable of carrying a payload with a peak computing power of up to 150 kilowatts.

The design of the AI1 device includes advanced liquid radiators, protection from the effects of micrometeorites, a centralized computing module and collapsible solar panels. Large-scale production of such satellites will be deployed at SpaceX's Gigasat manufacturing facility located in Texas. The operation of computing systems in outer space provides a number of unique technological advantages. These include efficient radiation cooling in vacuum conditions, access to continuous and uninterrupted solar energy, as well as the possibility of using planetary-scale orbital slots to accommodate infrastructure.

Analysts' long-term forecasts look even more optimistic for this technology. According to Morgan Stanley experts, by 2040, operating costs may decrease to $1.7 per watt per year. This means that the maintenance of an orbital data center with a capacity of one gigawatt will cost about $ 1.7 billion annually, while the creation of a terrestrial equivalent today requires a one-time capital investment of $ 100 billion. Despite the impressive calculations, experts note that the degree of realism of such a large-scale transformation of the industry requires additional verification and confirmation in practice, since the project is at an early stage of technological development.