The annual Evercore ISI survey of nearly 4,000 American consumers indicated a higher interest in upgrading iPhones compared to last year. The most notable demand is for the new Pro models: 53% of survey participants expressed their intention to purchase the iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max, with 32% specifically choosing the Pro Max. Last year, the share of respondents focused on this model was 29%. Meanwhile, interest in the foldable iPhone Duo remains noticeably lower, with 14% of respondents planning to purchase the device. Evercore expects this figure may change closer to the model's launch, scheduled for mid-October.
At the same time, the reasons why smartphone owners decide to switch to a new device are changing. The share of survey participants who cited the obsolescence of their current iPhone as the main reason increased from 48% to 67%. An additional factor is the choice of more expensive configurations with increased storage capacity. Apple offers Pro and Duo models with storage up to 2 TB, which, according to Evercore, could contribute to a roughly 28% increase in the average selling price. Analysts also consider the potential increase in list prices and a shift in demand towards more expensive versions. Thus, the change in the structure of consumer demand could impact revenue not only through the number of smartphones sold but also through their average cost.
Positive dynamics are also noted in other categories of Apple devices. The intention to purchase Apple Watch was expressed by 38% of survey participants, and AirPods by 43%; both figures were higher than last year's values. However, Evercore specifically highlighted a limitation of the survey: it reflects the situation only in the US market. The company assesses consumer demand as somewhat stronger than last year and links the results to the potential for Apple's revenue growth in the 2027 fiscal year to exceed the current Wall Street consensus forecast, which is approximately 7%. In its analytical note, Evercore also maintained an 'outperform' rating and raised the target price for shares to $380.