Trading company QCP Capital linked the decline of Bitcoin to $77,000 with changes in liquidity expectations and the rise in U.S. bond yields. At the end of August, BTC rose to $82,000, then retreated and fell to $76,500 – the lowest since the start of the rally.
Analysts cite the confrontation between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the bond market as a key factor. In August, he doubled the buybacks of long-term securities and challenged traders to bet against him, and on Wednesday tripled the operation to $6 billion. The 10-year bond auction went at 4.83% (the highest since 2007), the 30-year yield broke 5.3%, and of the declared $6 billion, the Treasury bought back only $5.19 billion. The 10-year yield closed at 4.95%. Traders saw this as a signal: the boundary was marked, tested, and they refused to pay it. The rise in U.S. yields is increasingly explained by expectations of Fed tightening and a risk premium, rather than economic growth. This is the worst combination for Bitcoin: a risk-free rate around 5% without nominal growth. The narrative of the Treasury's "liquidity put," which led BTC from $63,000 to $82,000, is under threat.
Additional pressure comes from Fed expectations: after the PPI (core 0.4%, excluding energy and food 0.2%), the probability of a rate hike at the September 16 meeting rose to 65%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that his vote will depend on the CPI report, with a consensus of +0.2%. The core PCE will be released only after the meeting, so the CPI remains the last major guide. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded three consecutive days of outflows – the first since the August three-week series of $3.8 billion; most sales were in ARKB. In the options market, volatility "at par" with the expiration on September 12 holds around 46% compared to 38–40% for other terms. The largest position on the board is the December call $80,000 / put $60,000 combo, a classic "barbell" strategy: betting not on direction, but on a sharp move in either direction.
On the positive side – the "golden cross": the 50-day average crossed the 200-day from below for the first time in the cycle around $70,000–$71,000. But historically, the signal is not always leading: after the largest bear market, it formed only in July 2015, with a delay. Resistance is at $80,000–$82,000, key support is at $76,300–$76,500 (tested on September 1, 2, and 10), secondary support is at $74,000–$75,000. If support is broken simultaneously with the 10-year yield rising above 5%, puts at $74,000–$75,000 will come into play.
According to QCP, a soft CPI and a return above $80,000 would open the way to a fifth attempt to storm $82,000 before the FOMC. But with oil above $100, a divided Fed committee, and Bessent holding yields hostage to his own reputation, the balance of risks leans towards caution: the yield spike hits the market first, the liquidity effect manifests later.