Nvidia posted an unprecedented surge in its stock price on Thursday, adding $442 billion to its market valuation. According to Bloomberg, this figure marks the second-largest single-day gain in market value ever recorded for an individual company. Shares of the tech giant rose 8.7%, the biggest one-day jump since April 2025. The result trails only Microsoft's achievement, when the company's market capitalization grew by $450 billion less than a month ago. Nvidia currently remains the world's largest public company, with a total market value of approximately $5.5 trillion.
The key catalyst for the stock rally was a confident financial outlook from management, which convinced institutional investors that the artificial intelligence industry will continue to grow at a rapid pace. The company's leadership stated that revenue in the next reporting period will increase by approximately 70%, significantly exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 45%. Experts at Bloomberg Intelligence noted that such ambitious expectations imply a potential upside of more than $100 billion above current estimates. Representatives of JPMorgan added that the stated targets are likely conservative, as production volumes are constrained by manufacturing capacity while unmet demand is growing considerably faster.
The scale of the single-day gain exceeds the combined market value of most companies in the leading U.S. stock index. The all-time record for the largest single-day increase had previously also belonged to Nvidia itself, when its valuation grew by $440 billion following the announcement by U.S. authorities of a 90-day pause on trade tariffs in April of last year. The company also holds the record for the largest single-day decline, when its market capitalization fell by nearly $600 billion amid concerns surrounding Chinese language model DeepSeek.
Over the past four years, Nvidia has undergone a sweeping transformation, growing annual revenue from $26.9 billion to $215.9 billion and net income from $9.8 billion to $120.1 billion. Free cash flow reached $96.7 billion, with a net profit margin of 55.6%. The primary growth driver is the data center segment, which generated $89 billion in revenue in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, up 117% year-over-year. The third-quarter guidance has been set at $108 billion. Return on equity stands at 117.2%, return on invested capital at 92.9%, and debt load remains moderate at 16.7%.
Analysts at major investment banks maintain high price targets. Raymond James set a target of $352, Cantor Fitzgerald at $350, Mizuho at $315, and DA Davidson at $300. Fair value models point to a base level of $281.5, implying upside potential of approximately 23.5% from current market prices.
That said, the market picture is not without risks. Nvidia's gross margin has declined from a peak of 75% to 71.1% and is projected to continue compressing amid rising memory costs. Morgan Stanley highlights the company's growing credit exposure through guarantees and residual value structures, which could reach $200 billion by end of 2028. Major tech corporations — including Google, Amazon, and Meta — are simultaneously developing their own chips, and export restrictions on the Chinese market remain in place. The bullish thesis is nonetheless reinforced by a new avenue of growth: the Vera CPU processor business, which analysts estimate could generate $20 billion in revenue in 2026, adding an additional growth vector beyond graphics accelerators.
***
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.