Take-Two Interactive Shares Fell by 21.86% Ahead of GTA 6 Release

Rockstar Games has nearly doubled its workforce during the development of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6): by August, 4,711 specialists were working across 12 divisions, compared to 2,441 at the release of Red Dead Redemption 2 in 2018. Meanwhile, shares of parent company Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) appear weak a month before the release.

According to Bloomberg, analysts expect around 40 million copies sold and $3 billion in revenue in the first four months after launch. On Friday, TTWO shares closed at $205.28, a decline of 21.86% over 12 months.

Bloomberg News notes: Rockstar has restructured its production processes to reduce overtime, but completely avoiding extra hours was not possible. The development of GTA 6 took over eight years and was delayed twice, the last time to November 19. The studio believes the experience gained will allow for a faster release of the next major project.

Take-Two forecasts $8–8.2 billion in net bookings (its own measure of digital and physical sales) in the 2027 fiscal year and confirmed the forecast in August considering the November 19 release. In the June quarter, the first of the new fiscal year, net bookings decreased by 3% to $1.39 billion. Meanwhile, the GTA series usually accounts for less than 15% of quarterly revenue, notes GameSpot. The standard edition of GTA 6 is priced around $80, $20 more than the launch price of GTA V in 2013.

StoneX analyst Mike Hickey maintains a "buy" recommendation for TTWO and a target price of $300; he attributes the current decline to the timing of the online mode, slowing console sales, and concerns over early results of NBA 2K27.

Concerns over leaks persist: an anonymous insider for GTA 6 threatened to reveal the ending if caught. Xbox denied reports of exclusive rights to cloud streaming of GTA 6 this month. The main outcomes will be seen on November 19: it will then become clear whether the expanded team can meet analysts' expectations.