The founder and head of the analytical company 10x Research, Markus Thielen, outlined the potential timing of the completion of the downward market cycle of bitcoin. According to him, the bearish trend may end as early as August of this year, but only on condition that the first cryptocurrency fixes the closing price of the month above the $63.0 thousand mark. Since July ended below this level, and over the past week the asset has shown a decrease of 3.2%, the analyst considers it premature to talk about the formation of a final trend reversal. For the transition to sustainable growth, the market requires not only a favorable macroeconomic environment, but also a reliable consolidation of quotations above the psychologically important level of $ 60.0 thousand.

Thielen identifies the dynamics of debt markets as the main macroeconomic threats. A further rise in yields on ten-year US Treasury bonds could force the Federal Reserve to return to tightening monetary policy and raising the base interest rate as early as September. Maintaining high rates over a long period of time traditionally puts negative pressure on the class of risky assets, which include digital currencies. Additionally, the situation is aggravated by the potential increase in supply from large institutional holders who are ready to realize their positions against the background of continuing uncertainty.

A separate pressure factor is associated with the activities of mining enterprises. According to expert estimates, companies that are currently refocusing their computing power on servicing artificial intelligence infrastructure control reserves of about 100,000 BTC. The release of these assets may create additional supply in the market. Earlier, Zach Pandl, head of the research department at Grayscale Investments, also listed similar factors contributing to bitcoin's exit from a prolonged decline phase, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive analysis of both internal and external economic indicators.

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The material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or recommendation.