In July 2026, the US economy recorded a 23,000 reduction in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector. This figure contrasts with the forecasts of economists, who expected an increase of 85,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor also revised down the data for the previous two months: the increase in June was adjusted from 57,000 to 20,000, and in May – from 129,000 to 63,000. The cumulative downward adjustment for this two-month period was 103,000 jobs.

Structural analysis shows that the decline in employment was mainly due to the public sector, where the number of jobs decreased by 53,000, primarily due to a decrease in the number of positions in the municipal sector. This decrease was partially offset by a 30,000 increase in private sector employment, supported by the healthcare and construction industries. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.1%, compared with the expected value of 4.2%. However, the share of the economically active population has fallen to 61.4%, remaining close to the lowest values over the past 50 years (excluding the pandemic period). Analysts note that this indicator was influenced by the tightening of immigration policy, which led to a reduction in the number of available workers on the labor market.

The reaction of financial markets to the publication of the report was expressed in a decrease in expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) in the near future. U.S. stock index futures showed growth, while government Treasury bond yields declined. Experts point out that weak employment data create prerequisites for maintaining a soft monetary policy. At the same time, the Fed is facing a dilemma, as the weakening of the labor market is taking place against the background of continuing inflationary pressures, including those caused by energy prices.