Analyst Wu Suggested Bitcoin's Lag in Post-Quantum Security

On-chain analyst Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin may lag behind the rest of the crypto industry and the tech sector in post-quantum security. However, he views this scenario as a once-in-a-generation opportunity rather than a tail risk. According to his assessment, Bitcoin may not meet the Q-Day deadline of 2028–2030. Q-Day is the moment when quantum technologies will be able to break the cryptography that underpins the security of blockchain, banking, and other digital systems.

“Bitcoin talks about a seven-year plan, but I doubt they will complete it in time,” Woo said. Even if they do, there remain 1.7 million lost and vulnerable coins—“these coins will be brought back to life.” This refers to Satoshi's holdings and other lost coins (forgotten passwords and seed phrases); at current prices, this reserve is worth $136 billion.

Previously, AMBCrypto noted that for the post-quantum era, Bitcoin will need to migrate the entire stack—from mining and transactions to wallets and unbreakable post-quantum signatures. But even with a successful migration, Woo believes Satoshi's coins and the lost supply in vulnerable wallets will remain at risk: an attacker could crash the market with these coins, dragging BTC down or even to “zero.” However, Woo holds a contrarian view: “Anyone who says BTC will go to zero on Q-Day shows they don’t understand BTC. It will be a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity—to take the other side of the trade.”

Critics, such as Yuvi Leitman, founder of the quantum-resistant network Quantus, mocked Woo's forecast. The consensus is that if cryptography is broken, nothing will remain secure, and no one will want to buy a risky asset—hence the talk of “zero.” The lack of consensus on most Bitcoin upgrades could further extend the quantum timeline, as Woo suggests. This potential delay prompted Coinbase to call for a two-phase approach to Bitcoin's post-quantum migration, starting immediately.