Anthropic: IPO may occur with a valuation of $1.5 trillion instead of $2 trillion

The IPO of Anthropic may proceed with a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, approximately $500 billion less than investors previously expected. Current and potential investors are discussing this valuation for the November listing, Reuters reported.

The figure was mentioned by participants at the investor day in San Francisco on Wednesday. There, Anthropic reported that it was profitable on an adjusted basis for the quarter and reported revenue of $16.8 billion for the third quarter, a 45% increase. However, some investors were disappointed by the slowed pace: in the second quarter, revenue more than doubled to $11.6 billion.

Part of this slowdown was visible in advance. Major clients Meta and Microsoft are increasingly relying on their own models. Anthropic also reduced distillation—a paid usage that accounted for 5–7% of revenue. Prices are also falling: this month, Anthropic priced Claude Haiku 5.5 about 75% lower than its predecessor amid pressure from cheap Chinese labs.

Critics doubted the $2 trillion valuation long before Wednesday's data. Earlier this month, New Constructs valued Anthropic at $150 billion. "We do not believe Anthropic has a viable business," said the firm, which noted WeWork in 2019. Even at $1.5 trillion, Anthropic would remain below SpaceX's valuation of $1.77 trillion at the June listing.

Anthropic's price is important not only for its shareholders: AI sales in Big Tech heavily depend on Anthropic and OpenAI. In August, Steve Eisman estimated their pair at about 70% of all AI revenue for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Oracle, calling this dependency the Achilles' heel of the AI boom. Other warnings about a bubble are growing louder: Michael Burry recently said the bubble could burst before 2028, and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expects a crash of the data center boom with a multi-trillion-dollar bailout.

All this is happening against the backdrop of a tough week for AI stocks. According to CNBC, the 20 most expensive AI and chip names lost over $1 trillion. Dell fell 6.8% on Thursday after a 11% drop the day before, and CoreWeave dropped about 15% on Wednesday.