Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030 if there is a decline in lending within the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. According to him, a sharp increase in Bitcoin prices could begin in late 2027 or early 2028, linked to pressure on debt-financed infrastructure.
Hayes' forecast is based on the fact that as of August 2023, AI financing could support more than $2 trillion in additional investment debt. He associates the risks with outdated AI equipment and long repayment schedules, which could lead to potential credit losses. Hayes expects that if data center earnings do not cover the large sums invested in construction and computing capacities, financial problems will arise. In his opinion, an important indicator will be whether the financial system can provide liquidity in response to losses occurring among borrowers and financial institutions. Hayes emphasizes that historically, similar situations in the industry have been associated with credit crises rather than income declines.
The second half of 2027 is expected to be a period of slowing growth in announced capital expenditures on AI, and this slowdown will become more apparent in 2028. Hayes notes that he expects investors to further favor companies that reduce their construction plans. It is assumed that Bitcoin will trade in the range between $60,000 and $70,000, with a possible decline to $50,000 before eventually shifting towards $1 million if financial policy responds to emerging risks in AI lending. Against this backdrop, U.S. regulators have recognized the need to improve reporting on private credit investments, which will take effect from the end of 2026. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) has identified issues with liquidity, pricing, and transparency in private lending. These measures are aimed at monitoring the quality of lending and assessing insurance company investments.
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