The BIT Research report states that the bear market for Bitcoin is over, with a projected price range exceeding $185,000 and reaching $215,000. Currently, the main cryptocurrency is trading above $83,000, marking the third consecutive month ending in positive territory, with quarterly earnings at 42%. BIT Research noted that they recorded a cycle low at the end of July when Bitcoin reached the target reduction level according to Elliott's analysis and held above $62,900. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator slowed its decline in June and July, even though the price reached new lows. For example, BTC crossed its 21-week moving average at $69,272 and reasserted itself at $70,000. At present, it is trading around $83,000, significantly above the March peak of $73,084. The report relies on an average cost of $76,897, allowing most holders and average ETF buyers to break even. Thus, according to analysts, this eliminates a source of selling pressure. Meanwhile, the US national debt level has exceeded $40 trillion, and rising bond yields may prompt investors to switch to gold and Bitcoin. According to the debt model, the estimated Bitcoin price is around $105,000, although the main obstacle is the strengthening dollar, as traders expect interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, analysts do not expect this to stop the rally, as in the past, the strength of the dollar has affected gold more than Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading in the range between $83,000 and $85,000, after being rejected at around $87,000. CoinGecko shows that the price is slightly above $83,000, although this represents a decline of more than 4% over the week. Despite this, the price shows nearly a 10% improvement over two weeks and is more than 7% higher than a month ago. Coinglass data showed that the third quarter will end with a result of +42.22%, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2024 and the best result for the third quarter since 2017. Additionally, ETF flows have also improved, with funds registering net inflows of $2.8 billion in September, increasing cumulative inflows to $57.6 billion, and total net assets reaching approximately $108 billion.
According to past cycles, Bitcoin rose at least 85% above the average holder cost, which currently stands at about $142,000. As BIT observers clarified, "this is a level for tracking the bull market, not a minimum target or final peak." The last cycle showed that it first reached the 85% level around $73,000 in March 2024 and peaked at $126,000. If the ratio decreases to 1.3-1.5 times from the base of $142,000, the result will be from $185,000 to $215,000. The time frames remain uncertain, as the last cycle took about 19 months to surpass the 85% level to the peak, and if following a similar scenario, $200,000 can be expected around 2028 or 2029. However, analysts emphasize that matching time frames is highly risky, and in the short term, the asset looks overheated after rapid growth, making it possible to expect a pause or a larger pullback.
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