Analysts Point to Obstacles for Bitcoin Growth

In order to continue its growth, Bitcoin must overcome the resistance zone in the range of $83,000–86,000, where long-term holders (LTH) have concentrated their coins and the breakeven level for spot ETFs is calculated. This conclusion was reached by analysts at Glassnode. In this range, LTH acquired about 1.07 million BTC, mainly at a price near $85,000. It is expected that a return of the price to this area will allow holders to sell coins without losses, which may put pressure on quotes. At the same time, investments from American exchange-traded funds are also focused on these levels — the calculated breakeven level for their assets is approximately $86,000. Over the past month, the total paper loss of spot funds has decreased from $18 billion to $3.9 billion, but it has not yet been fully compensated.

Long-term investors are currently less actively locking in profits: their share of the total realized income has decreased from 88% at the peak in August to 47%. It is noted that if buyers manage to raise the price of Bitcoin, additional support could be provided by short liquidations. Between $82,000 and $86,000 are the levels for forced closure of short positions, the volume of which has increased by 21% since August 19. Short liquidations may require reverse purchases and contribute to price growth.

Analyzing the current market situation, the analyst from CryptoQuant under the pseudonym Darkfost noted the lack of a sustainable buyer advantage in the spot market, although they already dominate in the futures market. Nevertheless, the supply of stablecoins on the Binance exchange has decreased from a peak of $50 billion by almost $7 billion, indicating a lack of liquidity. Even despite a recent influx of $1.6 billion, the dynamics over 90 days remain negative. American spot Bitcoin ETFs have also not provided new purchases, losing $166.8 million over two sessions. As Darkfost noted: "A confident breakout of the $80,000 level should be the key to a full and sustainable return of liquidity," but at the moment Bitcoin is trading around $77,700, down 1.4% over the day.