Bitcoin is Predicted a Golden Autumn, but November May Disappoint

Investor Fred Krueger noted that the next six weeks are historically the best time of the year for Bitcoin. He studied how the first cryptocurrency behaved in October and November over the past years.

From 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin closed October in the positive 10 times out of 13, with a median growth of about 13% (specifically, +12.73%); the average result was +18.42%. October was red only three times—in 2014, 2018, and 2025—and Bitcoin has never fallen in October two years in a row. But now an important detail: last October closed with a minus of 3.69%, and this year the coin is losing just over 1%. If nothing changes by the end of the month, this will be the first instance of two consecutive losing Octobers.

November presents a more complex picture. Krueger calls it the best month in Bitcoin's history, and by average result, it is—about 41% (specifically, +41.12%). But the figure is skewed by one November in 2013 when the coin rose by 449%. By median, November gives a modest 8.81% and falls behind October, February, and April. It was green 8 times out of 13, but three of the last five Novembers were losing months, including last year's with a drop of 17.67%.

In the crypto community, November is nicknamed Moonvember—from the English phrase "to the moon," referring to a sharp price surge. But this is about statistics: the sample is only 13 years, and one year, 2013, can significantly distort the overall picture. November's reputation largely rests on that single surge, and recent years show that the month can close in a deep negative. Therefore, seasonality is usually viewed as one of the factors rather than a signal to act: for investors, it's more of a reason to watch the market closely in the coming weeks than a reason to change strategy.