Bitcoin has triggered a key technical signal that marked the beginning of two previous bull markets. According to data from Glassnode published on September 22, Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio crossed above its 365-day moving average. The same signal was observed in 2019 and 2023 at the start of each growth period. As noted by Glassnode, this is "the same cross we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the start of each bull market." At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $85,873, having risen more than 50% from its July 1 low of $57,749. MVRV compares Bitcoin's market value to the aggregate value of coins in the network. When the ratio surpasses the 365-day average, it can signal a shift towards bullish momentum following an accumulation phase. Although the indicator recently returned to the long-term average after months below it, MVRV remains significantly below the extreme levels associated with market euphoria, indicating that Bitcoin has not yet entered historically overheated conditions.
In parallel, major investors are stepping up their activity in the Bitcoin network following the asset's recent rise. According to analyst Ali Martinez, data published on September 22 showed that the network processed more than 2,722 transactions worth over $1 million in a single day. Increased transaction volumes from large holders are typically seen as a sign of growing participation from institutions, investment funds, and other major market players. The influx of high-value transfers indicates that large holders remain active despite Bitcoin's sharp rise from July lows, pointing to sustained participation rather than mass profit-taking. Bullish sentiment is also supported by strong institutional demand through U.S. spot funds tracking Bitcoin. Data shows that these funds recorded a net inflow of approximately $999 million on September 21, followed by another $714.7 million on September 22. IBIT from BlackRock and FBTC from Fidelity accounted for a significant portion of the capital entering the market. Consecutive inflows into ETFs increase demand for Bitcoin while simultaneously reducing available supply–a dynamic that has helped support prices during the current recovery.
Bitcoin's technical structure has strengthened after breaking above a major rounded bottom, as pointed out by TrendSpider. This pattern is often associated with long-term trend reversals and reflects a gradual shift from seller pressure to sustained buyer demand. Bitcoin has also surpassed a key resistance zone around $80,000 and continues to hold above the 50-day simple moving average at $73,689 and the 200-day simple moving average at $70,614. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 73.62, placing Bitcoin in overbought territory. While readings above 70 often confirm strong bullish momentum, they can also signal an increased likelihood of consolidation or a temporary pullback.
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