China's Economy Grew by 4.5% in the Third Quarter of 2026

China reported an economic growth of 4.5% in July–September 2026 compared to the same period last year, driven by strong exports. This is closer to the official target of 4.5–5% for the year (against 5% last year). Growth accelerated from 4.3% in the second quarter, which was the slowest in more than three years. Earlier this month, the IMF lowered its forecast for 2026 to 4.5% – at the lower end of Beijing's target.

According to Max Zenglein (The Conference Board), the official figure is becoming "an increasingly poor indicator of the state of the economy": it masks "growing disparities between industries, regions, and households." He believes that internal imbalances will be more difficult for Beijing to resolve than external pressures.

Domestic demand is weak: a multi-year slump in the real estate market has squeezed household wealth and increased savings. Exports are one of the few bright spots: last month they grew by 36%, and the surplus for January–September reached $938 billion, so China may surpass last year's record of $1.2 trillion. High US tariffs are prompting the search for other markets – Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe. Growth drivers include semiconductors and automobiles, including hybrids and electric vehicles. The drive for self-sufficiency has spawned massive subsidized capacities in solar energy and electric vehicles, while weak consumption pushes goods abroad at competitive prices.

Eswar Prasad (Cornell): "It is unsustainable and unstable for the world's second-largest economy to rely on external demand." According to him, China "has become a drag on global growth rather than a driver." The EU, whose deficit with China exceeds $1.1 billion a day, expects a reduction in the imbalance; China's exports to the EU grew by 16% over nine months. This month's agreement aims to roughly halve imports of Chinese hybrids. Gary Ng (Natixis) believes China can negotiate and maintain market access; Lynn Song (ING) warns: even with agreements, imbalances will not be quickly resolved. Ekaterina Bigos (BNP Paribas AM) adds: the export model focused on technology provides few jobs and incomes, and the risks of labor displacement by AI are growing.