Cryptocurrencies on the Brink of Important Economic Data and Major Company Reports

Bitcoin, the crypto market, and the financial system as a whole are entering one of the most eventful macro weeks of the year: the Fed's decision, fresh inflation and GDP data, and a wave of reports from major tech companies all fall within a few days.

BTC is already struggling to hold above the key support of $80,000, and the upcoming publications may determine whether the current correction deepens or if buyers finally regain control.

Fed, Inflation, and GDP

According to Kobeissi Letter, the week begins on Tuesday with data on new home sales for September, after which attention shifts to the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The central bank will announce its rate decision on October 28, followed by a press conference. Almost all economists surveyed by Reuters expect the rate to remain unchanged: the target range will stay at 3.75–4.00%. However, expectations for another hike in December have significantly increased in recent weeks, especially after the release of CPI and PPI data for September.

If there is no unexpected hike on Wednesday, the decision itself may mean less for the crypto market than the Fed's guidance. A softer tone regarding future tightening could pressure Treasury yields and the dollar, improving appetite for risky assets like BTC. Conversely, new warnings about persistent inflation or further rate hikes will add pressure.

Thursday could become an even more important day: the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release a preliminary estimate of the U.S. GDP for Q3 along with personal income and spending data for September, which includes the Fed's preferred inflation indicator – the PCE index. Markets currently expect economic growth to remain strong and inflation elevated. Such a combination will strengthen the argument that the Fed has room to maintain restrictive policy, potentially creating another headwind for BTC and the crypto market.

Big Tech Reports

Kobeissi Letter notes that about 20% of S&P 500 companies are reporting this week, with Microsoft and Alphabet taking center stage on Wednesday, and Amazon and Intel on Thursday. This is important for the crypto market as BTC is increasingly trading in tandem with overall risk appetite, especially during sharp movements in tech stocks. Investors will be watching to see if large AI expenditures translate into sufficient growth for Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon following recent concerns about tech sector valuations, which have heavily pressured stocks.

Bitcoin suffered last week, especially after the rejection at $85,000 last Wednesday. The asset plunged to a five-week low on Saturday – $79,100 – and is now struggling to hold above $80,000. Spot BTC ETFs were positive last week, but this did not help the underlying asset's price recover.