To confirm a new bull market, Bitcoin needs to hold above the $81,700 mark, according to analysts at CryptoQuant. Over the past two weeks, the first cryptocurrency has risen by 24%, but then it stopped gaining momentum and entered a trading range of $76,000–82,000. At the time of publication, BTC was around $77,100. The head of research at CryptoQuant, Julio Moreno, identified the nearest significant resistance zone as the range of $77,100-80,200. In his assessment, long-term holders sold an average of up to 539,000 BTC there over a 30-day period in 2026. The next important level is the 365-day moving average around $81,700.
According to Moreno, in previous market cycles, the transition to a bullish phase was confirmed after the price closed above this value. If BTC cannot hold above this level, movement within the current range may continue. The next resistance areas are at $83,600 and approximately $88,700. The first corresponds to the 3x Metcalfe band based on network activity, while the second is located at the upper boundary of the realized price model for traders. In the event of a decline, CryptoQuant highlights support near $70,000, where the 200-day average is located, as well as the range of $62,000-65,000. Analysts estimate that in this zone, long-term holders acquired about 476,000 BTC throughout 2026.
At the same time, CryptoQuant still assesses the overall market structure as bullish, but an increase in demand and absorption of the current supply volume is necessary for a new impulse. The Bull Score Index has decreased from 80 to 60 points over the past few days but remains in the bullish zone with a value above 60. Analyst Plan B also noted the presence of two large clusters of coins: about 1 million BTC held by long-term holders is in the range of $84,000-87,000, while another approximately 1 million BTC held by short-term investors is around $62,000-65,000. Glassnode previously identified a nearby resistance area at the level of $83,000-86,000.
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