Equity Funds Attract Record $266 Billion Amid Bitcoin ETF Outflows

Global investment funds investing in stocks attracted a record $266 billion over the past four weeks. In just the last week, the net inflow amounted to $89 billion, with $32 billion going to American funds. These figures were published by the analytical platform The Kobeissi Letter on November 10, 2026, noting the high demand from investors for the US stock market.

Amid the capital inflow into stocks, American spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record outflows. From November 2 to 6, their total net outflow reached $1.28 billion, according to data from Farside Investors. Meanwhile, expectations of changes in US monetary policy remain an important factor for financial markets: according to the CME FedWatch estimate cited in the published analysis, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December reached 84.4%.

Investors have directed $2.1 trillion into US stock funds since 2020

According to The Kobeissi Letter, since the beginning of 2020, American stock funds have attracted about $2.1 trillion. A significant portion of this amount, $1.5 trillion, has come in since the beginning of 2024, indicating an acceleration of capital inflow over the past three years. These figures reflect purchases of mutual fund shares rather than a direct increase in stock market value.

For comparison, emerging Asian market stock funds received about $470 billion over a comparable period, roughly 4.5 times less than the US result. Conversely, $426 billion was withdrawn from European stock funds. These figures reflect differences in investment flow directions but do not imply that European companies lost a corresponding amount of market capitalization.

In the cryptocurrency market, the dynamics were different. From November 2 to 6, investors withdrew $1.28 billion from American spot Bitcoin ETFs, with about $1.21 billion attributed to BlackRock's IBIT fund. An additional outflow of $201 million was recorded on November 9, but this data pertains to the next trading week.

Simultaneous movement of funds into stock funds and Bitcoin ETFs does not prove a direct shift of capital from cryptocurrency to traditional assets. Such a conclusion would require information on the movement of investments between specific portfolios.

Market assesses Fed rate hike probability at 84.4%

According to the CME FedWatch estimate cited in the original analysis, market participants were pricing in an 84.4% probability of a 0.25 percentage point Fed rate hike at the December meeting. The tool calculates such probabilities based on federal funds futures prices, so the figure may change as new economic data is released. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for December 8-9.

At the previous meeting on October 28, the Fed maintained the target rate range at 3.75–4%. The decision was supported by ten committee members, while Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack advocated for a 0.25 percentage point increase. The regulator noted sustained economic activity in the US and persistent elevated inflation, emphasizing the need to consider new data before the next decision.

Expectations of higher interest rates can increase the relative attractiveness of income-generating instruments, including US government bonds. For Bitcoin, which does not generate interest income, this creates additional competition for investor capital. However, the impact of rates on BTC price also depends on cryptocurrency demand, liquidity conditions, and overall market risk sentiment.

US inflation to be the next market benchmark

On November 10, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. The indicator will help assess the further development of inflation and may lead to a revision of expectations regarding the Fed's December decision. However, the direction of the market reaction will depend not only on the CPI value itself but also on its deviation from analysts' forecasts.

On the same day, the US Treasury will hold an auction of 10-year Treasury bonds worth $42 billion. The results of the placement will help assess the demand for US government debt amid expectations of interest rate changes.

Thus, on November 10, investors are anticipating two events that could influence the assessment of borrowing costs in the US. Meanwhile, the record inflow into stock funds and outflow from Bitcoin ETFs already show differences in current demand for these investment instruments.