Ethereum May Drop 10% Against Bitcoin Due to Double Top

Ethereum is showing signs of further weakening against Bitcoin amid the emergence of a potential double top on the daily ETH/BTC chart. On September 16, Ethereum was trading at 0.03167 BTC after failing to sustain its latest rally. The increase in ETH deposits on Binance, weakening momentum, and growing regulatory uncertainty support a cautious short-term outlook. A close below 0.03078 BTC could lead to a decline of approximately 10% to 0.0283 BTC.

The ETH/BTC chart has formed two comparable peaks around 0.03344 BTC, the first of which appeared in August and the second in September. This structure resembles a double top—a bearish reversal pattern that develops when buyers repeatedly fail to overcome the same resistance level. The neckline of the pattern is around 0.03078 BTC: Ethereum needs to secure a convincing daily close below this level to confirm the bearish setup. Subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline gives a target decline level of around 0.0283 BTC—approximately 10% from Ethereum's current value against Bitcoin.

Ethereum's momentum is weakening. The relative strength index (RSI) for ETH/BTC has fallen to the 50 level after previously exceeding the overbought level of 70, indicating a fading momentum that supported Ethereum's recovery from August to September. Ethereum is still holding slightly above its 20-day exponential moving average at around 0.03162 BTC: a strong bounce from this average could delay or prevent the bearish drop. A sustained move above the two peaks at 0.03344 BTC would negate the double top scenario and restore a more bullish relative outlook for ETH.

The bearish technical setup has been exacerbated by ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding digital assets in the United States, which has contributed to a broad cryptocurrency sell-off. Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 4% to $75,900, and shares of major crypto companies, including Coinbase and Circle, have also declined. Regulatory uncertainty may prompt traders to favor Bitcoin over riskier assets like Ethereum, which could increase pressure on the ETH/BTC pair and refocus attention on the 0.03078 BTC neckline level.