Analyst Frank Cappelleri, founder and president of the research company CappThesis, believes that Bitcoin is only at the beginning of a major growth wave. In an article for CNBC Pro on October 1, he provided three reasons for this conclusion, based on an already realized 20% growth in August and two other signals.
The first reason is breakouts. This is what traders call the price moving above a level that has been difficult to surpass for a long time. In the summer, this pattern indeed worked and set the stage for Bitcoin's August breakout. However, from the end of 2025 to early 2026, three similar signals did not justify themselves. According to Cappelleri, such behavior is characteristic of a downtrend: in healthy growth, the price continues to move upward after a breakout.
The second reason is historical analysis. The weekly Bitcoin chart now resembles the period from 2022 to 2023. At that time, the weekly averages initially limited growth but then turned upward and became support during declines. Cappelleri considers such a reversal a sign of a market phase change—from decline to growth. The rise then continued until the end of 2025, and in his opinion, today's price dynamics are very similar.
The third reason is long-term technical analysis. Bitcoin's recovery began at an ascending trend line that has been in place since 2017. Each of the three previous returns to this line led to new growth over several months.
According to Cappelleri, the approximately 20% growth in August is also significant: in periods of weakness, such strong movements were rare. Additionally, according to CryptoQuant, the volume of exchange trading increased in August. For reference: Bitcoin has gained 36% over three months. Macroeconomic pressure remains. According to CME FedWatch—a service that tracks the market's perceived probability of a Federal Reserve rate change—the chances of a rate hike in October are 68.1%. The question is whether the market will consolidate higher amid expectations of a rate hike. This will show whether a trend reversal has begun or if it is just another short-term rebound.
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