Glassnode: the share of profitable short-term Bitcoin holders has fallen to 70%

The share of bitcoins held by short-term holders with a profit has decreased to approximately 70% from nearly 100% at the end of September, according to Glassnode. The company considers short-term holders as investors who own Bitcoin for less than 155 days: they react more quickly to price movements and may sell during significant gains. At the end of September, almost all coins in this group were profitable; the subsequent correction reduced the share of coins trading above the purchase price. According to Glassnode, for investors expecting continued growth, Bitcoin has become a noticeably better entry point than a month ago, although the company does not guarantee a recovery.

In the October 7 report, Glassnode found that short-term holders selling at a profit accounted for about 86% of all bitcoins sent to exchanges on October 4, the highest for the year. At that time, Bitcoin closed above $85,000 for the first time during that recovery. Since then, sales have cooled: in the October 21 report, realized profit-taking fell to about half the level of the September peak week, and holders of 1–2 years moved less than a third of the coins per day from the peak at the beginning of October.

Glassnode highlighted resistance at 85,000–87,500: the average purchase price of 6–12 month holders is around $86,700, sell orders are at 86,500–87,500, and liquidation clusters are around $85,000 and $87,000. Below, buying interest was around $80,000, where the average purchase prices of ETF investors and corporate treasuries are concentrated – 80,000–81,500. This support could not be maintained: on October 26, Bitcoin fell below $80,000, with an intraday low of around $79,332. The True Market Mean on October 21 was around $77,600.

ETFs attracted $524.8 million on October 21, lost $635.6 million the next day, and another $137.9 million on October 23: the total outflow over two sessions was $773.5 million. The five-session period closed with net inflows of about $301.2 million. The Fed's rate decision is on October 28, PCE for September on October 29, and major Bitcoin options expiration on October 30.