Mark Yusko, head of Morgan Creek Capital, used Metcalfe's Law to evaluate Bitcoin's value, associating it with the scale and activity of the network. According to this approach, the value of a network increases as the number of its users grows, with the relationship considered proportional to the square of their number. In relation to Bitcoin, Yusko takes into account indicators such as the number of active addresses and the volume of transactions conducted. Based on his own interpretation of these data, he believes that the current market valuation of BTC does not reflect its network value. However, this model is one of the possible ways to evaluate a crypto asset and depends on which specific activity indicators are used in the calculations.
Yusko also considers Bitcoin in the context of long-term capital preservation and compares it to traditional assets. In his comments, he argues that individual public companies often do not survive several decades, whereas gold has historically been used as a store of value for thousands of years. In his view, Bitcoin has carved out a unique place in this category due to its digital form and limited supply. Market dynamics, however, remain significantly less stable: in October last year, BTC reached an all-time high of around $126,198, while at the time of the described events, it was trading about 40% below that level—around $76,000. Over the preceding month, the price increased by approximately 19%, and Bitcoin's market capitalization was about $1.6 trillion.
Yusko's current assessments differ significantly from his previous calculations. In January 2024, he called Bitcoin's fair price $50,000, linking market prospects to the anticipated launch of spot exchange-traded funds. Later, the asset's dynamics changed, and the entrepreneur's valuation benchmarks became higher. In the presented approach, he emphasizes not only the market price but also the fundamental indicators of network usage. However, Bitcoin's value depends on many factors, including demand, liquidity, the state of the cryptocurrency market, and overall financial conditions, so calculation based on a single metric does not provide a definitive assessment of the asset's future price.
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