According to the McKinsey Global Institute, AI and automation will reduce demand for approximately 36 million jobs in the US by 2035, while creating around 41 million jobs in other sectors. "The next decade's challenge is mobility, not a shortage of positions," the authors write. About 11 million workers (approximately 7% of the workforce) will need to completely change professions—ranging from 6 to 16 million. The positions being reduced account for nearly 21% of work hours, and 25 million out of the 36 million are likely to remain in related professions.
The main impact will be on office and administrative support, retail, sales, and transportation—mostly low-paying jobs. Low-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely to need to change professions. Growth is expected in healthcare, professional and technical services, and construction.
McKinsey estimates the necessary pace of transitions at 770,000 people per year—3.6 times higher than the historical average. From 2019 to 2022, similar transitions were made by about 788,000 people annually without long-term damage. Only one in seven job losers has a direct path to a growing position with minimal retraining and comparable pay. Nearly half face an "unmapped" path due to skill gaps. About 85% of growing jobs require qualifications, and 76% cannot be performed remotely.
Richard Florida, urbanist and author of "The Rise of the Creative Class," reminds us: previously, most worked in agriculture, now it's 1%; in manufacturing, it was 50-60%, now 5-6%. He expects those who lose jobs to end up in the welfare sector—from fitness to Pilates studios. Cities attract talent through universities. Ken Griffin allocated $3 billion to Carnegie Mellon, with $2 billion for a Miami campus opening in 2028. Vanderbilt is building a campus in West Palm Beach with $50 million from Stephen Ross. The key metric is the annual rate of profession change: growth from 215,000 to 770,000 will show that the transition is working.
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