Several indicators point to a gradual return of liquidity to the cryptocurrency market. The total stablecoin capitalization reached $306.7 billion, increasing by 0.47% over the week and by 1.23% over the month, according to DefiLlama data. Meanwhile, the supply of such assets has hardly decreased even during Bitcoin's decline of more than 50% from its peak, distinguishing the current market structure from the 2022–2023 period. Analysts attribute this to the expanded functions of stablecoins: they are used not only for cryptocurrency trading but also in payments, transfers, and operations with tokenized assets. Individual blockchains show higher dynamics. For example, the volume of stablecoins in the Solana network increased by 7.35% over the month and – by 4.97% over the week, reaching approximately $16.87 billion. Such growth may reflect both the inflow of new capital and the movement of existing funds between networks.
Another indicator of activity is the increase in decentralized exchange turnovers. Over the past week, DEX trading volume grew by 3.73%, and the cumulative figure for 30 days amounted to $265.1 billion. Wintermute previously estimated that at the recent market low, capital inflow through available channels, including ETFs and stablecoins, decreased to 2.4% of the total crypto market capitalization. In recent weeks, this figure has begun to recover, although it remains below the levels characteristic of previous periods of active growth. Analysts cite the tokenized real asset market as a potential additional liquidity channel. Meanwhile, Glassnode recorded a change in Bitcoin demand structure: the flow of market orders on centralized exchanges shifted from net sales to purchases, and spot trading volume increased. The monthly change in realized capitalization also exceeded the upper boundary of Glassnode's statistical range, which analysts associate with capital inflow at higher prices.
Against this backdrop, the role of Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, historically associated with halvings, is being discussed again. Industry representatives note that the growth of liquidity and the expansion of institutional participation could change the market structure, but the existing indicators themselves do not confirm the start of a new cycle. Danny Galindo from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management points out that the four completed cycles included approximately three years of growth and 12–14 months of decline, and the current timelines relative to the 2025 peak and the next halving fall within a similar time range. Simultaneously, other metrics provide a less clear picture: during the current decline, Bitcoin lost about 53% from its peak, whereas in past bear phases, the drop was 77–84%. The Thermocap Multiple fell to about 13, although historical lows of the indicator formed at single-digit values. Galindo emphasizes the limited historical sample and considers such indicators as guidelines rather than standalone forecasting tools.
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