RVGI Indicator Gives Fourth Bitcoin Bottom Signal

Analysts at Rand Group believe that Bitcoin may have found the cycle's bottom again, as indicated by the monthly RVGI indicator signal. Over the past decade, the indicator has given this signal three times, and each time Bitcoin began a multi-year rise afterward. The October candle has not yet closed, so the picture may change by the end of the month.

RVGI shows who is stronger in the market – buyers or sellers. If month after month the price closes higher than it opened, the indicator rises; if lower, it falls. Signals are determined by the control line: when the indicator crosses it from bottom to top, traders consider that the advantage shifts to buyers.

In the Rand Group chart, the indicator is built on monthly candles. At the bottom, a band is highlighted approximately from -0.2 to -0.4 – the zone where Bitcoin previously found its bottom. Now the indicator has dropped there again and has started to turn upward. Circles on the chart from 2013 to October 19, 2026, mark four reversals from the bottom zone.

Past reversals looked like this: the end of 2015 – Bitcoin was worth a few hundred dollars, then rose to the peaks of 2017; the beginning of 2019 – the signal appeared after the 2018 crash, then the market reached the highs of 2021; the turn of 2022–2023 – the indicator reversed at the bottom of another decline, after which Bitcoin broke $100,000 for the first time.

Rand Group reminds: at each of the past moments, many thought Bitcoin had crashed forever, and now the sentiments are similar. In their opinion, this is the essence of the signal – it's always scary at the bottom, otherwise, it wouldn't be the bottom.

Investors should pay attention to two details. First: technically, the market is where the most profitable segments of the cycle began before. Second: the indicator only records a change in sentiment, not promises growth. Three coincidences in a row do not guarantee a fourth, and an unclosed candle can cancel the signal.