Major US banks are releasing third-quarter reports amid a successful first half of the year, bolstered by the SpaceX deal. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Herman Chan believes that the anticipated IPO of Anthropic will support banks in the fourth quarter. In his opinion, delays in listings and a booming market driven by AI make the market more vulnerable.
Among the reporting banks are Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Morgan Stanley, one of the main underwriters of the SpaceX offering, demonstrated the scale of the market: equity underwriting revenue in the second quarter amounted to $851 million compared to $500 million a year earlier. Revenue is generated from fees for assisting companies in selling shares. The asset management division attracted a record $148 billion in new funds. CFO Sharon Yeshaya reported that more than half of the inflows are related to IPOs.
Chan expects asset management to maintain its position: capital inflow continues. For investment banking and trading activities, he says, the situation may be more volatile. LSEG data shows that global investment banking fees fell by 19% in the second quarter and by more than 12% year-on-year over nine months.
Chan forecasts that the Anthropic offering in the fourth quarter will be a profit growth driver for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Bloomberg reported in June that both financial groups will take leading positions in the IPO, with JPMorgan also joining.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 index lost more than 300 points on Thursday on news of a revenue decline at OpenAI. According to the Financial Times, the discrepancy arose due to different approaches by OpenAI and Anthropic in accounting for cloud partner sales. Chan links the cooling of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's stock prices to this factor.
This material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.
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