Willy Woo Questions the Start of Bitcoin's Bear Market

Blockchain data analyst Willy Woo does not consider the decline in the Fear and Greed Index as evidence that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a bear market. On November 12, 2026, he stated that in past bear periods, fear was accompanied by price lows. In his assessment, the current Bitcoin price is far from such levels. The deterioration in sentiment alone does not confirm a trend change.

Fear Index Dropped to 28 Points

Woo referred to a chart from the analytical platform Glassnode. According to Alternative.me, the service that calculates the Fear and Greed Index, on November 12, the indicator was at 28 points out of 100 compared to 50 a week earlier. Values closer to 0 correspond to increased fear, while closer to 100 indicate market participants' greed.

"We have never observed fear in a bear market if the price did not update lows," the analyst wrote. This is his interpretation of historical data, not a confirmation of future growth.

A separate analysis of cyclical dynamics allows for a maximum of the next price cycle in 2028. However, the methodology of this assessment is not disclosed in the original material, and attributing the forecast directly to Woo is incorrect.

Market Pessimism Does Not Rule Out Further Decline

According to Santiment, a platform for analyzing sentiment around crypto assets, there are currently more negative comments about Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and XRP than positive ones. After the stock sell-off on Nasdaq, the stock market fear indicator, reflecting traders' caution, also rose. Previously, Woo noted a six-year low in Google search interest for Bitcoin, which he interpreted as a signal contradicting prevailing sentiments.

Woo's hypothesis has a condition: if Bitcoin starts updating lows while fear persists, such a situation would meet his criterion for a bear market. Sentiment data reflects participants' attitudes towards the market but does not determine the future price movement.