Willy Woo's Forecast: Bitcoin Could Reach $1.03 Million by 2033

According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, the median scenario for Bitcoin projects a price of $1.03 million by February 2033. Following this trajectory, the price first drops by 43% from the peak of the next cycle in 2028. Woo emphasizes that the model does not claim to be a forecast but considers the fair range for the peak of the 2028 cycle to be between $241,000 and $413,000. However, the path along the 29th percentile, which he highlighted separately, never reaches $1 million. Investors will have to wait more than six years for the median target.

How the model is built

Woo used the Monte Carlo method—thousands of random runs to assess possible scenarios. The model was trained on prices from the market bottom in 2018 to the low in 2022. He excluded older data when a 100-fold increase was common: now the market, according to Woo, is defined by derivative financial instruments, exchange-traded funds, and rapid liquidations. A power-law decay parameter with a coefficient of 0.45 reduces returns with each cycle. Additionally, the model takes into account the phase in which Bitcoin is within the market cycle.

Scenarios by 2030

In the median scenario, Bitcoin reaches a peak of $413,000 by December 2028, and by April 2030, the price drops to $234,000. The value at the 29th percentile, above which 29% of all simulations fall, gives a maximum of $241,000 in December 2028 and a minimum of $126,000 in April 2030. Historically, the minimum of each new cycle has bounced from the previous maximum, and Woo highlights this path as following the pattern.

In extreme scenarios, the 90th percentile leads to $1.44 million in March 2029, and the 10th to $51,900 in April 2030. In all four noted scenarios, the peaks occur from December 2028 to March 2029. Meanwhile, the 500-day rule after the halving indicates a selling period in 2029: the strategy suggests buying about 500 days before the halving and selling about 500 days after it.

The model assumes that future returns will resemble the period from 2018 to 2022, and any structural changes in the market could disrupt this dependency. Traditional methods undergo a similar test: in June, Bitcoin traded below all levels of the rainbow chart.