CryptoQuant analysts have signaled a potential end to Bitcoin's bearish phase, which may indicate a resumption of growth. Short-term Bitcoin holders (STH) have been holding their assets in profit for nearly a month. This trend was observed after previous bearish cycles, and the current value of STH coins is $168 billion, while assets in loss amount to just over $100 billion. CryptoQuant specialist Darkfost noted that in recent months, short-term holders have not remained in profit for an extended period – in January and May, such situations did not last more than a week. Now the positive change is lasting longer. To confirm the end of the bear market, Bitcoin needs to consolidate above the $80,000 mark, with current quotes around $77,000. Additionally, analysis showed that the SOPR (profit to loss ratio) for long-term holders (LTH) has risen above 1, which is also a positive sign.
According to analysts, on September 12, the 30-day volume of Bitcoin transfers from retail investors to the Binance exchange amounted to $10.11 billion – this is almost as much as was recorded on June 6, when the price was at $60,700. During this time, Bitcoin has grown by approximately 27%, reaching $77,000. At the same time, large holders began sending fewer coins to the platform, and their transfer volume decreased from $6.8 billion to $4.9 billion over the same period. This change may indicate profit-taking amid rising quotes and creating pressure on the price. However, the inflow of Bitcoins to the trading platform does not necessarily mean their subsequent sale: the coins may remain in accounts or be used for other operations.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16, most market participants expect a 25 basis point increase in the key rate with a probability of 92.5%. As noted by CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, the actions of small investors may indicate profit-taking amid rising quotes, creating short-term pressure on the price. Although the reserves of long-term holders remain at a record level, indicating Bitcoin accumulation by this group, uncertainty still exists in the market. Taha also emphasized that any change in Federal Reserve policy will become an additional factor influencing the cryptocurrency market, creating expectations among traders, especially in the context of a possible increase in the key interest rate.
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