After the Fed meeting, analysts have diverged in their Bitcoin forecasts. Some metrics indicate a weakening demand, but the analyst under the pseudonym Crypto Dan believes that a return to a bear market is "becoming less likely." According to his observations, the share of losing UTXOs has sharply decreased – a similar behavior of the metric was observed at the end of previous bear phases. "A movement of this magnitude has enough strength to shift the market from a bear cycle to a bull one," he added. However, in the short term, pressure may be exerted by a rate hike and the failure of a regulatory initiative in the US.
Analyst Darkfost pointed to an opposite signal: after the Fed meeting, the Bull Score Index switched to bear mode. This indicator assesses the state of the bull market and the strength of buyers, taking into account spot trading volumes, futures activity, coin movements to exchanges, and network activity. Over the week, the indicator fell from 80 to 30. Darkfost also noted that demand for Bitcoin is not strengthening, and the profit of short-term holders is decreasing. "At the moment, the market is reacting by demanding an even higher risk premium. Some positions may be closed due to the lack of short-term investment prospects," he emphasized.
Glassnode indicated that Bitcoin fell below the lower boundary of the multi-week range and the True Market Mean level. If the price does not reclaim this level, the risk of a rollback to the cost price for short-term holders – to the area around $70,000 – will increase. MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin faced resistance slightly above $80,000. "For momentum, it is necessary to break through this barrier, and then we will start moving towards the highs," he said.
Investor sentiment is also reflected in the dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs: on September 15 and 16, the products recorded outflows of $450 million and $295 million, respectively. "The next few trading sessions will show whether the outflows were an isolated risk reduction or the beginning of a broader change in dynamics," warned analysts at Coinbase Markets.
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