Arthur Hayes Warns of Bitcoin Risk Due to AI Companies' IPOs

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested that the sale of shares of major tech companies after IPOs could reduce dollar liquidity and increase pressure on Bitcoin. He wrote about this on November 5 in the essay D is for Dilution. This is a scenario, not a crisis that has begun.

Why Hayes Fears Stock Unlocking

Hayes considers SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. After IPOs, restrictions on the sale of shares by employees and early investors expire. The increase in free float could pressure stock prices.

For Anthropic, Hayes calculated a dilution risk of 83% by June 2027. However, the unlocking of previously issued shares is not equivalent to additional issuance and does not in itself reduce the stake of existing shareholders. The calculation depends on the IPO date and future sales.

Assuming Anthropic's capitalization at $1.5 trillion, Hayes arrived at a figure of $1.245 trillion in potential supply. This is Hayes' model, not an actual funding requirement.

In the S-1/A form dated November 2, Anthropic disclosed commitments to purchase computing power and lease infrastructure worth $895.4 billion. About $447.5 billion is allocated for the period until the end of 2030, with the remaining amount mainly distributed until 2045. These are not one-time expenses.

SpaceX already conducted an IPO in June 2026. Hayes suggests that by June 2027, an additional 8.6 billion of its shares could become available for trading, but this volume of sales is not confirmed by the company. OpenAI has submitted a confidential draft of IPO documents, but the terms and date of the offering have not been announced.

How AI Sector Risks Are Linked to BTC

According to Hayes' scenario, a decline in stocks will make it difficult for AI companies to attract debt financing. Banks may reduce lending, and a slowdown in dollar liquidity growth could weaken demand for risky assets, including BTC.

“Absent any dramatic change in the fiat liquidity picture, Maelstrom will chill on the sidelines,” Hayes wrote. Translation: “If the fiat liquidity situation does not change significantly, Maelstrom will remain on the sidelines.”

In the long run, the analyst allows for the possibility of monetary policy easing in the event of a serious crisis, which could support Bitcoin. But neither a crisis nor central bank actions are predetermined. The scenario can be assessed by credit rates, bank activity, and stock sales.