Bitcoin Rises 26% Since SpaceX IPO as Market Awaits Anthropic Listing

A day after Anthropic filed for an IPO, Bitcoin remained largely unchanged, trading around $80,000. On the day of the filing, U.S. stocks were rising while Strategy was falling. The main narrative: the listing will attract capital that could have gone into Bitcoin, complicating the recovery of the asset, which lost over 5% in a month.

Similar discussions surrounded the SpaceX IPO: the listing and rumors of potential IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic were cited as reasons for the decline. SpaceX began trading on June 12, rising approximately 19% above its listing price and exceeding a $2 trillion market cap. Currently, traders value Anthropic at nearly $1.9 trillion with Bitcoin's market cap around $1.6 trillion.

Bitcoin fell before the SpaceX IPO, briefly rebounded after trading began, and on June 30 hit new lows, closing around $58,500. From this low, it has risen about 37%, and since the SpaceX listing, about 26%. SpaceX shares have fallen 9% since debut but remain 9% above the listing price. Bitcoin's dynamics at the time were influenced by ETF outflows, Strategy's Bitcoin sales, and liquidation of long positions.

Exchanges offer synthetic exposure to Anthropic through pre-trading perpetual futures, similar to SpaceX. Tokenized SpaceX shares, which were supposed to be backed by real securities, were canceled by exchanges, and funds were returned on the listing day as shares were not obtained. Anthropic warns: the sale or transfer of its shares without board approval is invalid.

The macro environment is different now. In September, the Fed raised rates, but Bitcoin rose afterward; on October 28, the market expects rates to remain unchanged. Inflation reached 4.2% in May, rising to 3.7% in September. Brent exceeded $116 per barrel, bond yields are higher than in June, and the midterm elections on November 3 may cool activity. Inflows into ETFs in 'Uptober' are mostly zero.

The Bitcoin Layer founder Nick Bhatiya linked Anthropic's filing, SpaceX's $40 billion debt raise, and Meta's $95 billion valuation raise to a fight for the last liquidity. In his opinion, investors will prefer assets with visible cash flow over speculative startups. "These are red flags indicating the start of valuation declines," he said.