Analysts at Bernstein have forecasted a shift in prediction markets towards financial asset contracts. By 2035, cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities could account for 49% of the turnover compared to 38% for sports, according to The Block. The total annual trading volume is estimated to reach $10 trillion by 2035, up from approximately $410 billion in 2026. The average annual growth from 2025 is expected to be around 70%.
Activity in the industry has increased from $50 billion in 2025 to $300 billion from January to August 2026. In 2025, sports accounted for 61% of the turnover, while financial contracts made up about 12%. The growth was supported by short-term contracts on cryptocurrencies and commodities, including 15-minute markets on Bitcoin. On Kalshi, the share of crypto contracts rose from less than 5% in January to approximately 20% in August. The turnover of commodity contracts increased from less than $2 million for the entire year of 2025 to about $590 million since the beginning of 2026, of which $410 million was in August. The platform accounted for about 60% of the total market volume compared to 35% a year earlier. On Polymarket, sports contributed approximately 52% of the turnover since the beginning of 2026, up from 39% in 2025, while the share of politics decreased from 32% to 22%, and cryptocurrencies accounted for about 21%.
Bernstein expects an expansion of the range of financial contracts, including KPI markets and perpetual futures on commodities and individual stocks. The potential market for financial asset contracts is estimated at $700 trillion by the end of 2025, growing to $900 trillion by 2035. With prediction markets accounting for about 0.5%, the financial segment could generate approximately $4.7 trillion in annual turnover. A limiting factor for the U.S. is the regulation of sports contracts: clarity is not expected until 2027-2028. Previously, Bernstein had projected the turnover of prediction markets to reach $1 trillion by 2030.
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