Bitcoin Below $80,000 – The First Two Conditions of the Bearish Forecast for 2026 Have Been Met

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 on Monday morning. Analyst Benjamin Cowen reported that two out of nine points of his bearish scenario for 2026 have been fulfilled.

The fulfilled points are a weekly close below $83,000 and a false breakout on October 25, when the price surged upward but quickly returned back. The next two steps no longer depend on price movement but on events scheduled for this week.

What macroeconomic events could influence further

Cowen's scenario assumes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not raise the rate at the meeting on October 28. The decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time.

Then, on October 29, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September. Cowen expects the index to show an increase in inflation.

The scale of the oil price surge has already approached the target: a barrel of Brent cost $116.72 on Friday, while Cowen's scenario requires quotes to reach $120. The main growth factor is geopolitical tension around Iran.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was 5.10% on October 15, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Cowen expects a return to the 5.3% mark.

Following this, according to his forecast, will be a decline in stock indices, a fall in bitcoin in the fourth quarter, and a weakening of long bond yields by the end of the year. Cowen points to a historically recurring decline in the last quarter of midterm election years in the U.S.

Conditions for canceling Cowen's scenario

According to Cowen, his scenario will be canceled if bitcoin recovers above $83,000 and holds this level: "I consider this scenario the main one if bitcoin rises above $83,000 again."

Bitcoin is already below $80,000, and the Fed's decisions and the inflation report are still ahead.