Bitcoin Matches S&P 500 in Number of Successful Trading Sessions

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown higher returns than the American stock index S&P 500 in 45 out of the last 90 trading sessions. The share of such days reached 50% after a prolonged period when the cryptocurrency often lagged behind stocks. The last time the indicator exceeded this mark was in March 2025.

The calculation covers 90 trading sessions in the US as of November 4, 2026. In each case, the daily returns of BTC and S&P 500 were compared. Thus, the indicator reflects the frequency of outperforming the index, rather than the cumulative profit for the period under consideration.

The average return of Bitcoin for a single session was also slightly higher than that of the S&P 500. However, over the past two months, BTC has depreciated by about 2%, while the index lost less than 1%. These results show why the number of successful sessions cannot be used instead of comparing the overall returns of assets.

How the American market behaved after the elections

After the midterm elections to the US Congress on November 3, financial market participants turned to historical statistics. As a result of the vote, the Democratic Party gained a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, while the presidential post remains with a representative of the Republican Party.

Among the 26 midterm elections held from 1922 to 2022, there are 7 cases where Democrats gained a majority in both chambers with a Republican president. According to the historical sample provided, the S&P 500 on average added 10.7% over the next three months, 17.5% over six months, and 15.5% over a year.

These indicators describe past periods, not the expected returns after the 2026 elections. The sample is limited to 7 cases, and stock market results are also influenced by economic growth, corporate profits, and monetary policy.

The relationship between Bitcoin and American stocks was separately assessed. The 20-day rolling correlation of BTC with the S&P 500 was 0.63, indicating a positive connection in their price changes over the period considered. Since August, the indicator has remained predominantly positive.

However, correlation does not prove that the movement of one asset causes a change in the price of another. To assess relative dynamics, both the frequency of outperformance and the cumulative return and volatility are important. While the indicator of successful Bitcoin sessions reached equilibrium with the S&P 500, it has not settled above 50%.