Bitcoin Rebounds from Summer Lows, but November Remains Uncertain

Bitcoin has recovered from summer lows, but investors enter November amid uncertainty: demand is improving unevenly, and US rates remain high. On October 28, the Fed maintained the target range of 3.75–4%: 10 votes for the decision, two for a quarter-point increase. The regulator called inflation elevated and did not signal an imminent rate cut.

What the data says

Coinbase Research, in its quarterly review, estimated Bitcoin's growth in Q3 at 43% and noted an improved forecast. However, many coins were purchased above current prices: about 1.7 million BTC were last moved in the range of 89,600–93,700, indicating a potential seller pressure zone. Fidelity suggests that November could be a period of cyclical low but emphasizes that historical cycles do not determine the turning point.

What to watch

The sustainability of the recovery depends on whether buyers continue to enter after the initial surge. Several weeks of net inflow into spot ETFs while maintaining prices will provide a stronger signal than one successful day: inflow can be offset by sales from other holders. Spot purchases are more important than a short-term squeeze – growth from closing short positions loses momentum when liquidations end. It is also worth watching whether Ethereum and major altcoins join in: a decline in Bitcoin dominance alone does not prove rotation, as the stablecoin supply affects the indicator.

High yields on government debt make investors demand more compelling reasons to invest in risky assets. Bitcoin's reaction to subsequent inflation and employment reports will show whether demand persists after the news, not just at the moment of their release.