Bitcoin Returns Above $80,000 Ahead of Fed Decision

Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 ahead of the Fed's decision on October 28, gaining more than 1% in 24 hours. Throughout the day, the price moved within the range of $79,416–81,159, with a trading volume of about $23.5 billion and a market capitalization exceeding $1.62 trillion. Despite the rebound, BTC failed to reclaim $82,000, so the growth has not yet been confirmed as a breakout.

Flows

On October 26, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $110.3 million, mainly through BlackRock's IBIT, following two sessions of heavy outflows. On October 22–23, the funds lost a total of about $773.5 million, including $635.6 million on October 22. According to SoSoValue, the inflow on October 27 was only about $24.54 million, with cumulative receipts reaching $57.32 billion – demand remains uneven.

Santiment reported that about 14,942 BTC net left exchanges – the largest daily outflow in five weeks. Analysts interpret this as a possible sign of reduced selling pressure ahead of the Fed, but such transfers may reflect a change of custodian or operations between platforms.

Fed and Demand

The market expects the rate to remain in the range of 3.75–4.00% after a 0.25 percentage point increase in September. Comments from Chairman Kevin Warsh on inflation and a hint at a December hike could pressure risky assets. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that spot demand continued to decline in October, and the Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60. He identified the 365-day average of $77,585, traders' realized price of $74,041, and the 200-day average of $73,028 as levels to watch.

Technical Picture

BTC is trading around $80,915, below the 9-day average of $81,416 and the 21-day average of $81,905 – a bearish crossover persists. RSI 45.52 is below the neutral 50. Analyst Rekt Capital considers $81,400 an important level for closing the three-day candle: failure to reclaim it will cement resistance, while a sustained return will bolster the scenario of testing 82,000–82,500. The nearest support is $80,000, followed by $78,000 and $76,000. Above the short-term averages, the focus is on $84,202, with stronger resistance around $86,000. Ali Martinez noted that in the previous three U.S. midterm election years – 2014, 2018, and 2022 – Bitcoin showed negative returns in the fourth quarter; this is a historical observation, not a forecast.