Cardano May Face Further Losses Amid Large Investor Holdings Reduction

Cardano (ADA) is struggling to regain momentum: on Monday, the token is trading below $0.20 after losing 21% of its value in October. The cryptocurrency has held above the $0.1894 support, but the reduction in positions by large holders and the weakening of the derivatives market indicate that buyers are not rushing to return. After Thursday's nearly 8% sell-off, ADA has stabilized, but a convincing recovery is yet to be seen.

Large Holders and Social Media

According to Santiment, wallets holding 10–100 million ADA now control about 37.45% of the circulating supply, down from 38.03% a month earlier: large investors have been reducing positions rather than accumulating tokens in a weak market. The share of supply in profit has also sharply fallen – from 28.36% to 14.77%, reflecting the impact of the recent price decline, although this figure does not show how much movement was caused by profit-taking.

Meanwhile, attention to Cardano on social media increased following reports that neither ADA nor tokens associated with Midnight were affected by the Binance hack. Social dominance reached 2.49% – the highest since late June. However, the increase in mentions has not yet translated into active purchases by the largest holders.

Derivatives Market

Futures open interest in ADA has decreased to approximately $419 million from $450 million a week earlier – about 11%. This means that traders were closing positions faster than opening new ones. A decline in open interest usually indicates reduced participation or unwinding of leveraged positions; in Cardano's case, it coincided with a price drop and a reduction in positions by large holders.

Technical Picture

On the daily chart, sellers are in control: ADA is below the 50-day EMA at $0.2179 and the 200-day EMA at $0.2408, both acting as resistance. The price also broke the ascending trendline around $0.2019, and now the former support may become resistance: for recovery, buyers need to reclaim this level, then test the 50-day EMA and the more significant obstacle – the 200-day EMA. RSI around 31 is approaching the oversold zone below 30, but this only reflects the strength of recent sales; MACD remains below zero and confirms the bearish momentum. The key level is $0.1894, the low of August 30. A break and daily close below this will weaken the short-term picture and open the way to $0.1712 (the low of August 18), and with further pressure – to $0.1537 (the level of July 27).